Saw an interesting bumper sticker for a write-in candidate, “Giant Meteor 2016.” Don’t worry, this article will not grandstand for any candidate, meteor included. Rather, the overwhelming feeling I have this election cycle is… complex. Not in the dictionary sense, rather, “complex” in the project management/engineering sense based on the “Cynefin Framework.”
More specifically, projects can be roughly categorized into four types: simple, complicated, complex, and chaotic. How you manage a successful project depends on what type of project it is, and if you bring the wrong management approach to the problem then you will most likely fail. A “simple” project is one where cause and effect relationships are well known and management can be reduced to implementing a “best practice.” A “complicated” project is similar to a simple project, except there are interdependent parts and there is not a single best practice; rather, there are equally acceptable best practices. “Complex” projects differ from complicated projects when the system is adaptable. Cause and effect relationships still exist, but they are dynamic. Clearly, when humans, nature, markets, or computer software are involved then you are, at the very least, facing a complex project. And you may be in the midst of a chaotic one. A “chaotic” project differs from the complex in that cause and effect relationships break down.
Unfortunately, if you are in the midst of a complex project and you take a simple management approach, then your complex project will turn into a chaotic one. And, believe it or not, a simple management approach to a chaotic project will turn it into a simple one, but not how you intended it. For instance, rather than having to concern yourself with the intricacies of trade, taxes, race, or whatever, you will instead simplify the decision- making to: where do I sleep tonight and where is my next meal.
So, what is equally frustrating to me as partisan bickering destroying communication, is proclaiming a simple solution to a complex problem. Nature adapts. What worked today may not work tomorrow. The way to manage a complex project is to recognize that you don’t know the answer. There needs to be an element of doubt. Before acting you need to first probe the system and listen for the response to understand the cause and effect. Chaotic systems, on the other hand, require immediate action to stabilize the system in addition to listening to it.
These subtleties probably will not emerge in the ads or the debates. I doubt any candidate will admit to not knowing how to fix the problem and advocate for listening before acting and changing their solution as the system adapts to it. Curiously, I also reflect on God and religion in this context. In particular, God would probably advocate for guiding principles instead of inflexible rules. Which reminds me… Becca and I took a parenting class at which they recommended saying what you want your children to do instead of what not to do (for instance, “put your feet on the floor” instead of “get off the table”). It would seem that God didn’t take this parenting class since only two of the Ten Commandments are what you should do!
Joe Criscione, President